Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DAY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($10.57) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.6%/yr | 10.9% | $4.81 |
| Base case | 17.6%/yr | 9.9% | $7.34 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.9% | $10.57 |
Current Price
$69.86
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$7.34
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $71.6M · 0.16B shares · net debt $636.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$7.34
-89.5% vs $69.86
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $9.73 | $10.73 | $11.91 | $13.32 | $15.06 |
| 8.9% | $7.73 | $8.44 | $9.26 | $10.22 | $11.35 |
| 9.9% | $6.21 | $6.74 | $7.34 | $8.02 | $8.81 |
| 10.9% | $5.02 | $5.43 | $5.88 | $6.39 | $6.96 |
| 11.9% | $4.07 | $4.38 | $4.74 | $5.12 | $5.56 |
