DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) between $62.20 and $94.59 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $77.49. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$150.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $62.20 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $77.49 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $94.59 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $169.65 | |
Current Price
$150.58
Market-Implied Growth
+36.6%/yr
vs +37.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$62.20 – $94.59
model output — not a price target
DASH DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DASH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.44B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$125.10
-16.9% vs $150.58
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $150.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $155 | $162 | $170 | $179 | $190 |
| 10.5% | $134 | $139 | $145 | $151 | $158 |
| 11.5% | $117 | $121 | $125 | $130 | $135 |
| 12.5% | $104 | $107 | $110 | $113 | $117 |
| 13.5% | $92.68 | $94.87 | $97.26 | $99.88 | $103 |
About DoorDash, Inc.
DoorDash, Inc. operates a comprehensive logistics platform globally and within the United States, linking merchants, consumers, and delivery personnel ('dashers'). Through its primary marketplaces, DoorDash and Wolt, the company provides essential services designed to help merchants overcome critical challenges, including customer acquisition, delivery logistics, data insights and analytics, merchandising support, payment processing, and customer assistance. Additionally, DoorDash offers subscription-based products like DashPass and Wolt+, alongside white-label delivery fulfillment services under DoorDash Drive and Wolt Drive. Its portfolio also includes DoorDash Storefront, which enables merchants to provide on-demand e-commerce access to their customers, and Bbot, a solution offering digital ordering and payment processing for both in-store and online channels. Founded in 2013 as Palo Alto Delivery Inc., the company officially adopted the name DoorDash, Inc. in 2015. It is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- CEO
- Tony Xu