Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DASH
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($95.89) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$193.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $63.50 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $78.79 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $95.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $162.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$193.53
Market-Implied Growth
+43.8%/yr
vs +37.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$78.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DASH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.44B shares · net cash $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$78.79
-59.3% vs $193.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $193.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $92.04 | $96.91 | $102 | $109 | $116 |
| 10.5% | $81.30 | $84.98 | $89.12 | $93.81 | $99.15 |
| 11.5% | $72.74 | $75.61 | $78.79 | $82.34 | $86.33 |
| 12.5% | $65.77 | $68.05 | $70.56 | $73.33 | $76.39 |
| 13.5% | $60.00 | $61.85 | $63.86 | $66.06 | $68.48 |
