TGM's two-stage DCF values Daktronics, Inc. (DAKT) between $13.46 and $20.04 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $16.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$17.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.1%/yr | 12.5% | $13.46 |
| Base case | 12.1%/yr | 11.5% | $16.26 |
| Optimistic | 15.1%/yr | 10.5% | $20.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $12.61 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$17.80
Market-Implied Growth
+14.9%/yr
vs +12.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.46 – $20.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DAKT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $40.3M · 0.05B shares · net cash $117.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.26
-8.7% vs $17.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $18.62 | $19.49 | $20.47 | $21.61 | $22.94 |
| 10.5% | $16.70 | $17.36 | $18.10 | $18.93 | $19.89 |
| 11.5% | $15.18 | $15.69 | $16.26 | $16.89 | $17.60 |
| 12.5% | $13.93 | $14.34 | $14.79 | $15.28 | $15.83 |
| 13.5% | $12.90 | $13.23 | $13.59 | $13.98 | $14.41 |
