TGM's two-stage DCF values Crexendo, Inc. (CXDO) between $4.06 and $6.07 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $4.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$5.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.6% | $4.06 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.6% | $4.97 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.6% | $6.07 |
Current Price
$5.96
Market-Implied Growth
+23.7%/yr
vs +34.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.06 – $6.07
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CXDO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.8M · 0.03B shares · net cash $31.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.97
-16.5% vs $5.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $5.85 | $6.23 | $6.68 | $7.23 | $7.91 |
| 8.6% | $5.11 | $5.38 | $5.68 | $6.05 | $6.48 |
| 9.6% | $4.55 | $4.75 | $4.97 | $5.23 | $5.52 |
| 10.6% | $4.12 | $4.27 | $4.43 | $4.62 | $4.84 |
| 11.6% | $3.78 | $3.89 | $4.02 | $4.16 | $4.32 |
