CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (CX) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (CX) between $4.34 and $10.74 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $6.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$12.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.3% | $4.34 |
| Base case | 3.5%/yr | 8.3% | $6.88 |
| Optimistic | 6.5%/yr | 7.3% | $10.74 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $192.62 | |
Current Price
$12.98
Market-Implied Growth
+14.7%/yr
vs +2.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.34 – $10.74
model output — not a price target
CX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $811.5M · 1.45B shares · net debt $5.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.26
-44.1% vs $12.98
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $10.48 | $11.59 | $12.98 | $14.79 | $17.26 |
| 7.3% | $8.02 | $8.70 | $9.52 | $10.54 | $11.82 |
| 8.3% | $6.28 | $6.73 | $7.26 | $7.89 | $8.64 |
| 9.3% | $5.00 | $5.31 | $5.67 | $6.08 | $6.56 |
| 10.3% | $4.00 | $4.23 | $4.48 | $4.77 | $5.10 |
About CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V.
CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V., along with its subsidiaries, operates globally as a prominent supplier involved in the production, commercialization, and distribution of core construction commodities such as cement, ready-mix concrete, and aggregates. The company also provides holistic urbanization services and an extensive selection of other building materials. Its comprehensive inventory further features a variety of supplementary construction items, such as asphalt paving products, concrete masonry units, roofing tiles, bespoke architectural elements, and concrete piping specifically engineered for storm and sanitary wastewater systems. Moreover, CEMEX manufactures a broad spectrum of precast concrete goods, encompassing components for railways, concrete flooring solutions, box culverts, bridge segments, drainage structures, traffic barriers, and parking lot curbs. Beyond material supply, the firm delivers specialized construction solutions tailored for residential projects, road paving, and environmentally conscious building practices. Its service offerings additionally include maritime logistics for cement distribution and diverse information technology solutions. Established in 1906, CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico, and maintains a substantial retail footprint with approximately 2,000 stores.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- CEO
- Jaime Muguiro Domínguez