TGM's two-stage DCF values CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (CX) between $4.34 and $9.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $6.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$12.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.3% | $4.34 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.3% | $6.26 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.3% | $9.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $192.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.00
Market-Implied Growth
+13.2%/yr
vs -0.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$4.34 – $9.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $811.5M · 1.45B shares · net debt $5.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$6.26
-47.8% vs $12.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $8.67 | $9.85 | $11.34 | $13.27 | $15.90 |
| 7.3% | $6.58 | $7.35 | $8.27 | $9.41 | $10.84 |
| 8.3% | $5.11 | $5.64 | $6.26 | $7.00 | $7.89 |
| 9.3% | $4.01 | $4.40 | $4.84 | $5.35 | $5.95 |
| 10.3% | $3.16 | $3.46 | $3.78 | $4.16 | $4.58 |
