TGM's two-stage DCF values Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) between $19.96 and $49.49 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.52. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$93.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +39.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.8% | $19.96 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.8% | $32.52 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.8% | $49.49 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $193.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$93.00
Market-Implied Growth
+39.3%/yr
vs +19.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$19.96 – $49.49
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CWST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $81.4M · 0.06B shares · net debt $961.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$32.52
-65.0% vs $93.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $93.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $46.67 | $54.03 | $63.60 | $76.58 | $95.21 |
| 6.8% | $34.27 | $38.82 | $44.42 | $51.49 | $60.70 |
| 7.8% | $25.84 | $28.89 | $32.52 | $36.89 | $42.28 |
| 8.8% | $19.74 | $21.91 | $24.42 | $27.36 | $30.85 |
| 9.8% | $15.13 | $16.74 | $18.56 | $20.65 | $23.06 |
