TGM's two-stage DCF values Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) between $40.73 and $72.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $52.89. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$30.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.9%/yr | 8.5% | $40.73 |
| Base case | 13.9%/yr | 7.5% | $52.89 |
| Optimistic | 16.9%/yr | 6.5% | $72.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $34.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$30.80
Market-Implied Growth
-1.9%/yr
vs +13.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$40.73 – $72.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CWCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $21.8M · 0.02B shares · net cash $123.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$52.89
+71.8% vs $30.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $30.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $66.89 | $74.47 | $84.58 | $98.71 | $120 |
| 6.5% | $54.53 | $59.08 | $64.76 | $72.06 | $81.78 |
| 7.5% | $46.32 | $49.31 | $52.89 | $57.27 | $62.74 |
| 8.5% | $40.47 | $42.57 | $45.00 | $47.88 | $51.33 |
| 9.5% | $36.10 | $37.63 | $39.38 | $41.40 | $43.75 |
