Carvana Co. (CVNA) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CVNA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($19.46) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $13.16 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $16.13 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $19.46 |
Current Price
$68.90
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$16.13
model output — not a price target
CVNA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CVNA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $771.5M · 1.10B shares · net cash $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$25.40
-63.1% vs $68.90
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $68.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $31.25 | $32.60 | $34.15 | $35.94 | $38.03 |
| 10.5% | $27.12 | $28.10 | $29.20 | $30.45 | $31.87 |
| 11.5% | $23.86 | $24.59 | $25.40 | $26.30 | $27.31 |
| 12.5% | $21.24 | $21.79 | $22.40 | $23.07 | $23.81 |
| 13.5% | $19.09 | $19.51 | $19.98 | $20.49 | $21.05 |
About Carvana Co.
Carvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States. Their comprehensive services span the entire customer journey, including sourcing and reconditioning automobiles, providing an intuitive online browsing and transaction experience, offering financing solutions, and supplying complementary products. The company also manages its own specialized logistics network for distinctive delivery and pickup options, alongside providing extensive post-sale support. Furthermore, Carvana operates various vehicle auction sites. This company was established in 2012 and maintains its headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto - Dealerships
- CEO
- Ernest C. Garcia