Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CVNA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($15.37) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $9.07 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $12.05 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $15.37 |
Current Price
$62.36
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$12.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CVNA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $771.5M · 1.10B shares · net debt $2.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$12.05
-80.7% vs $62.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $62.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $14.62 | $15.57 | $16.65 | $17.90 | $19.35 |
| 10.5% | $12.53 | $13.25 | $14.06 | $14.97 | $16.01 |
| 11.5% | $10.87 | $11.43 | $12.05 | $12.74 | $13.51 |
| 12.5% | $9.51 | $9.96 | $10.45 | $10.98 | $11.58 |
| 13.5% | $8.39 | $8.75 | $9.14 | $9.57 | $10.04 |
