TGM's two-stage DCF values Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) between $5.41 and $9.49 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $6.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$2.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -11.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.9% | $5.41 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.9% | $6.87 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.9% | $9.49 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $3.76 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$2.96
Market-Implied Growth
-11.4%/yr
vs -5.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$5.41 – $9.49
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CVGI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $26.3M · 0.03B shares · net debt $81.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.87
+131.8% vs $2.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $8.45 | $9.06 | $9.76 | $10.57 | $11.53 |
| 9.9% | $7.16 | $7.61 | $8.12 | $8.70 | $9.38 |
| 10.9% | $6.14 | $6.49 | $6.87 | $7.31 | $7.80 |
| 11.9% | $5.32 | $5.59 | $5.89 | $6.22 | $6.60 |
| 12.9% | $4.64 | $4.86 | $5.10 | $5.36 | $5.65 |
