TGM's two-stage DCF values Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) between $536.66 and $847.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $675.93. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$578.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.7%/yr | 11.4% | $536.66 |
| Base case | 17.7%/yr | 10.4% | $675.93 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.4% | $847.32 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $339.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$578.77
Market-Implied Growth
+13.5%/yr
vs +20.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$536.66 – $847.32
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CVCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $209.4M · 0.01B shares · net cash $257.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$675.93
+16.8% vs $578.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $578.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $804 | $855 | $914 | $985 | $1070 |
| 9.4% | $698 | $735 | $778 | $827 | $884 |
| 10.4% | $616 | $644 | $676 | $712 | $753 |
| 11.4% | $551 | $573 | $597 | $624 | $655 |
| 12.4% | $499 | $516 | $535 | $556 | $579 |
