TGM's two-stage DCF values Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) between $55.15 and $108.21 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $77.38. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$32.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $55.15 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $77.38 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $108.21 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $77.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$32.56
Market-Implied Growth
-0.7%/yr
vs +44.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.15 – $108.21
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CTRA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.76B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$77.38
+137.6% vs $32.56
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $103 | $117 | $136 | $162 | $201 |
| 6.5% | $80.42 | $88.83 | $99.33 | $113 | $131 |
| 7.5% | $65.23 | $70.75 | $77.38 | $85.46 | $95.56 |
| 8.5% | $54.42 | $58.29 | $62.79 | $68.10 | $74.48 |
| 9.5% | $46.35 | $49.18 | $52.41 | $56.13 | $60.46 |
