Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) between $55.15 and $108.21 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $77.38. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$32.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $55.15 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $77.38 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $108.21 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $77.50 | |
Current Price
$32.56
Market-Implied Growth
-0.7%/yr
vs +44.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.15 – $108.21
model output — not a price target
CTRA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CTRA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.76B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$140.86
+332.6% vs $32.56
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $199 | $224 | $256 | $301 | $369 |
| 6.5% | $153 | $166 | $184 | $206 | $236 |
| 7.5% | $122 | $130 | $141 | $154 | $170 |
| 8.5% | $99.94 | $106 | $113 | $121 | $130 |
| 9.5% | $83.83 | $87.88 | $92.51 | $97.85 | $104 |
About Coterra Energy Inc.
Operating as an independent entity in the United States, Coterra Energy Inc. is engaged in the upstream sector of the energy industry, specializing in the discovery, extraction, and development of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company's primary operational footprint is concentrated in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna County, within the dry gas window of the Marcellus Shale, where it holds roughly 177,000 net acres. Beyond this, Coterra maintains significant landholdings in other prolific basins, including approximately 306,000 net acres in the Permian Basin and about 182,000 net acres within Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin. Furthermore, in Texas, Coterra manages infrastructure for natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering. Its natural gas output is supplied to a diverse clientele, encompassing industrial consumers, local utilities, energy marketers, prominent energy corporations, pipeline operators, and electricity generating plants. As of year-end 2021, Coterra reported substantial proved reserves totaling roughly 2,892,582 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE). This figure comprised approximately 189,429 thousand barrels of crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons, 14,895 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 220,615 thousand barrels of natural gas liquids. The corporation was established in 1989 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Thomas E. Jorden