Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CSX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($21.86) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$51.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.2%/yr | 11.1% | $9.17 |
| Base case | 5.2%/yr | 10.1% | $14.44 |
| Optimistic | 8.2%/yr | 9.1% | $21.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $16.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$51.49
Market-Implied Growth
+29.1%/yr
vs +5.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$14.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CSX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.0B · 1.85B shares · net debt $18.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$14.44
-71.9% vs $51.49
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $19.12 | $21.03 | $23.27 | $25.95 | $29.21 |
| 9.1% | $15.23 | $16.60 | $18.19 | $20.03 | $22.19 |
| 10.1% | $12.25 | $13.28 | $14.44 | $15.77 | $17.30 |
| 11.1% | $9.89 | $10.69 | $11.57 | $12.57 | $13.70 |
| 12.1% | $7.98 | $8.61 | $9.30 | $10.07 | $10.93 |
