CSX Corporation (CSX) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values CSX Corporation (CSX) between $10.48 and $23.94 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $16.09. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$47.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 11.2% | $10.48 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 10.2% | $16.09 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 9.2% | $23.94 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $17.28 | |
Current Price
$47.37
Market-Implied Growth
+27.7%/yr
vs +8.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.48 – $23.94
model output — not a price target
CSX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CSX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.0B · 1.86B shares · net debt $18.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$20.30
-57.1% vs $47.37
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $47.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $27.69 | $29.59 | $31.84 | $34.51 | $37.76 |
| 9.2% | $22.37 | $23.68 | $25.20 | $26.95 | $29.02 |
| 10.2% | $18.30 | $19.24 | $20.30 | $21.52 | $22.91 |
| 11.2% | $15.09 | $15.78 | $16.55 | $17.42 | $18.40 |
| 12.2% | $12.49 | $13.02 | $13.59 | $14.24 | $14.95 |
About CSX Corporation
CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and trailers, and specialized transport solutions such as efficient rail-to-truck transfers and the handling of bulk commodities. CSX facilitates the shipment of a diverse array of goods, encompassing industrial chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive components and finished vehicles, minerals, timber products, fertilizers, and various metals and heavy equipment. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in energy supply chains, transporting coal, coke, and iron ore to power generation facilities, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, and also manages the export of coal via deep-water port access. The company's intermodal operations leverage a robust network of approximately 30 terminals to transport manufactured consumer goods in containers. This also includes drayage services, managing the initial pickup and final delivery of intermodal freight. For the automotive industry, CSX provides dedicated distribution centers and storage locations, and extends its reach to clients without direct rail access by orchestrating transfers of products like plastics and ethanol from rail to road. CSX's substantial infrastructure features an extensive rail network spanning approximately 19,500 route miles. This network strategically connects numerous population centers across 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and extends into the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. Powering these operations, CSX owns and leases around 3,500 locomotives. Its rail lines also provide direct connections to various production and distribution facilities, enhancing supply chain efficiency. Established in 1978, CSX Corporation has its headquarters located in Jacksonville, Florida.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Railroads
- CEO
- Stephen F. Angel