TGM's two-stage DCF values Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL) between $336.07 and $652.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $461.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$367.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.0%/yr | 9.3% | $336.07 |
| Base case | 7.0%/yr | 8.3% | $461.90 |
| Optimistic | 10.0%/yr | 7.3% | $652.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 21, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $410.81 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$367.68
Market-Implied Growth
+2.1%/yr
vs +10.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$336.07 – $652.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CSL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $958.2M · 0.04B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$461.90
+25.6% vs $367.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $367.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $591 | $655 | $735 | $839 | $980 |
| 7.3% | $479 | $520 | $570 | $631 | $708 |
| 8.3% | $400 | $429 | $462 | $501 | $549 |
| 9.3% | $341 | $362 | $386 | $413 | $445 |
| 10.3% | $296 | $312 | $329 | $349 | $372 |
