Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRTO
Even the conservative scenario ($61.39) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $61.39 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $76.64 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $106.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $253.40 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.68
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$76.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRTO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $175.5M · 0.05B shares · net cash $330.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$76.64
+422.1% vs $14.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $97.19 | $108 | $123 | $144 | $175 |
| 6.5% | $79.03 | $85.74 | $94.11 | $105 | $119 |
| 7.5% | $66.93 | $71.34 | $76.64 | $83.10 | $91.17 |
| 8.5% | $58.28 | $61.38 | $64.99 | $69.25 | $74.36 |
| 9.5% | $51.80 | $54.07 | $56.67 | $59.66 | $63.14 |
