Crocs, Inc. (CROX) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Crocs, Inc. (CROX) between $217.41 and $355.63 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $278.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$121.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.4%/yr | 12.5% | $217.41 |
| Base case | 17.4%/yr | 11.5% | $278.70 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $355.63 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $95.92 | |
Current Price
$121.40
Market-Implied Growth
-1.6%/yr
vs +14.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$217.41 – $355.63
model output — not a price target
CROX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CROX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $737.0M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$459.87
+278.8% vs $121.40
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $121.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $577 | $605 | $636 | $672 | $713 |
| 10.5% | $495 | $514 | $536 | $561 | $590 |
| 11.5% | $429 | $444 | $460 | $478 | $498 |
| 12.5% | $376 | $387 | $400 | $413 | $428 |
| 13.5% | $333 | $342 | $351 | $361 | $373 |
About Crocs, Inc.
Crocs, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the design, development, production, promotion, and distribution of everyday footwear and accessories for men, women, and children. Operating under its well-known Crocs brand, the company provides a diverse range of footwear items, such as its signature clogs, sandals, slides, flip-flops, boots, flats, wedges, platforms, loafers, sneakers, and slippers. Complementing these are accessories like socks and shoe charms. Crocs distributes its merchandise across roughly 85 countries, utilizing multiple sales channels including wholesale partners, its own retail outlets, proprietary e-commerce platforms, and external online marketplaces. By December 31, 2021, its extensive retail network featured 193 outlet stores, 107 traditional retail locations, and an additional 373 company-operated stores, along with 73 kiosks and store-in-store concessions. Furthermore, Crocs managed 14 dedicated e-commerce websites. Geographically, the company's reach extends to the Americas, the Asia Pacific region, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Crocs, Inc. was established in 1999 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Broomfield, Colorado.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
- CEO
- Andrew Rees