TGM's two-stage DCF values Crocs, Inc. (CROX) between $191.27 and $319.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $245.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$136.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.5%/yr | 12.5% | $191.27 |
| Base case | 13.5%/yr | 11.5% | $245.77 |
| Optimistic | 16.5%/yr | 10.5% | $319.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $93.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$136.62
Market-Implied Growth
+0.2%/yr
vs +10.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$191.27 – $319.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CROX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $737.0M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$245.77
+79.9% vs $136.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $136.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $292 | $309 | $328 | $351 | $377 |
| 10.5% | $255 | $267 | $282 | $298 | $317 |
| 11.5% | $225 | $235 | $246 | $258 | $272 |
| 12.5% | $200 | $208 | $217 | $227 | $237 |
| 13.5% | $180 | $186 | $193 | $201 | $210 |
