TGM's two-stage DCF values Carter's Inc. (CRI) between $56.40 and $98.28 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $70.89. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$32.30 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -15.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.3% | $56.40 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.3% | $70.89 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.3% | $98.28 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $121.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$32.30
Market-Implied Growth
-15.1%/yr
vs -2.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$56.40 – $98.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $155.6M · 0.04B shares · net debt $80.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.89
+119.5% vs $32.30
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.30; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $89.10 | $98.01 | $109 | $124 | $144 |
| 7.3% | $73.33 | $79.10 | $86.07 | $94.65 | $105 |
| 8.3% | $62.20 | $66.20 | $70.89 | $76.46 | $83.18 |
| 9.3% | $53.92 | $56.84 | $60.18 | $64.04 | $68.57 |
| 10.3% | $47.52 | $49.73 | $52.21 | $55.02 | $58.25 |
