TGM's two-stage DCF values Carter's Inc. (CRI) between $55.56 and $96.21 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.66. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$38.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.4% | $55.56 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.4% | $69.66 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.4% | $96.21 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $117.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$38.75
Market-Implied Growth
-10.9%/yr
vs -1.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.56 – $96.21
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $155.6M · 0.04B shares · net debt $80.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$69.66
+79.8% vs $38.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $87.24 | $95.73 | $106 | $120 | $139 |
| 7.4% | $72.05 | $77.60 | $84.28 | $92.46 | $103 |
| 8.4% | $61.26 | $65.13 | $69.66 | $75.01 | $81.45 |
| 9.4% | $53.21 | $56.04 | $59.28 | $63.01 | $67.38 |
| 10.4% | $46.96 | $49.11 | $51.52 | $54.25 | $57.38 |
