Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRDO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($9.29) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $8.18 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $8.70 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $9.29 |
Current Price
$276.84
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$8.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRDO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $23.1M · 0.19B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$8.70
-96.9% vs $276.84
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $276.84; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $9.15 | $9.32 | $9.51 | $9.73 | $9.98 |
| 10.5% | $8.79 | $8.91 | $9.05 | $9.21 | $9.40 |
| 11.5% | $8.49 | $8.59 | $8.70 | $8.82 | $8.96 |
| 12.5% | $8.26 | $8.33 | $8.42 | $8.51 | $8.62 |
| 13.5% | $8.06 | $8.12 | $8.19 | $8.27 | $8.35 |
