Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRCT
Even the conservative scenario ($16.96) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $16.96 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $21.35 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $29.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $17.28 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$6.38
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$21.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRCT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $211.2M · 0.21B shares · net cash $244.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$21.35
+235.0% vs $6.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $6.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $27.28 | $30.49 | $34.78 | $40.77 | $49.76 |
| 6.5% | $22.04 | $23.98 | $26.39 | $29.49 | $33.62 |
| 7.5% | $18.55 | $19.83 | $21.35 | $23.22 | $25.54 |
| 8.5% | $16.06 | $16.96 | $18.00 | $19.22 | $20.70 |
| 9.5% | $14.20 | $14.85 | $15.60 | $16.46 | $17.46 |
