TGM's two-stage DCF values Copart, Inc. (CPRT) between $23.03 and $38.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $29.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$29.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.3%/yr | 10.2% | $23.03 |
| Base case | 16.3%/yr | 9.2% | $29.15 |
| Optimistic | 19.3%/yr | 8.2% | $38.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$29.57
Market-Implied Growth
+16.7%/yr
vs +19.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$23.03 – $38.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPRT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $904.6M · 0.93B shares · net cash $2.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$29.15
-1.4% vs $29.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $35.20 | $37.89 | $41.14 | $45.16 | $50.26 |
| 8.2% | $30.07 | $31.92 | $34.08 | $36.66 | $39.79 |
| 9.2% | $26.28 | $27.62 | $29.15 | $30.93 | $33.02 |
| 10.2% | $23.38 | $24.38 | $25.51 | $26.80 | $28.28 |
| 11.2% | $21.08 | $21.86 | $22.72 | $23.69 | $24.78 |
