TGM's two-stage DCF values Copart, Inc. (CPRT) between $25.39 and $42.93 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $32.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$29.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.4%/yr | 10.2% | $25.39 |
| Base case | 15.4%/yr | 9.2% | $32.54 |
| Optimistic | 18.4%/yr | 8.2% | $42.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $24.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$29.95
Market-Implied Growth
+13.2%/yr
vs +19.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$25.39 – $42.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPRT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.93B shares · net cash $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$32.54
+8.7% vs $29.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $29.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $39.59 | $42.72 | $46.50 | $51.19 | $57.13 |
| 8.2% | $33.61 | $35.76 | $38.29 | $41.30 | $44.94 |
| 9.2% | $29.20 | $30.76 | $32.54 | $34.61 | $37.05 |
| 10.2% | $25.82 | $26.99 | $28.31 | $29.80 | $31.52 |
| 11.2% | $23.14 | $24.05 | $25.05 | $26.18 | $27.45 |
