TGM's two-stage DCF values Canterbury Park Holding Corporation (CPHC) between $17.39 and $30.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $22.62. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$16.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.3%/yr | 8.5% | $17.39 |
| Base case | 6.3%/yr | 7.5% | $22.62 |
| Optimistic | 9.3%/yr | 6.5% | $30.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $17.03 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$16.00
Market-Implied Growth
-3.2%/yr
vs +6.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.39 – $30.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPHC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.2M · 0.01B shares · net cash $15.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$22.62
+41.4% vs $16.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $16.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $28.48 | $31.66 | $35.89 | $41.82 | $50.71 |
| 6.5% | $23.30 | $25.21 | $27.59 | $30.66 | $34.74 |
| 7.5% | $19.86 | $21.11 | $22.62 | $24.46 | $26.75 |
| 8.5% | $17.40 | $18.28 | $19.30 | $20.52 | $21.97 |
| 9.5% | $15.56 | $16.20 | $16.94 | $17.79 | $18.78 |
