TGM's two-stage DCF values Campbell Soup Company (CPB) between $16.58 and $48.56 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $27.40. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.03 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $16.58 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $27.40 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $48.56 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $98.07 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$22.03
Market-Implied Growth
-0.6%/yr
vs -1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.58 – $48.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $739.0M · 0.30B shares · net debt $6.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$27.40
+24.4% vs $22.03
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $41.98 | $49.90 | $60.46 | $75.22 | $97.35 |
| 6.5% | $29.10 | $33.85 | $39.80 | $47.43 | $57.60 |
| 7.5% | $20.51 | $23.64 | $27.40 | $31.99 | $37.71 |
| 8.5% | $14.37 | $16.57 | $19.13 | $22.16 | $25.78 |
| 9.5% | $9.77 | $11.39 | $13.23 | $15.35 | $17.82 |
