Campbell Soup Company (CPB) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Campbell Soup Company (CPB) between $16.58 and $48.56 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $27.40. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $16.58 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $27.40 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $48.56 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $100.52 | |
Current Price
$22.31
Market-Implied Growth
-0.5%/yr
vs +0.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.58 – $48.56
model output — not a price target
CPB DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $739.0M · 0.30B shares · net debt $6.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.51
+18.8% vs $22.31
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $43.24 | $49.90 | $58.79 | $71.23 | $89.88 |
| 6.5% | $30.05 | $33.85 | $38.62 | $44.74 | $52.90 |
| 7.5% | $21.25 | $23.64 | $26.51 | $30.01 | $34.38 |
| 8.5% | $14.98 | $16.57 | $18.43 | $20.63 | $23.26 |
| 9.5% | $10.27 | $11.39 | $12.66 | $14.12 | $15.84 |
About Campbell Soup Company
Campbell Soup Company (CPB) is a leading international producer and marketer of a wide variety of food and beverage products. The enterprise conducts its business through two main operational divisions: Meals & Beverages and Snacks. The Meals & Beverages segment serves both retail and food service industries throughout the United States and Canada. Its extensive product range includes classic Campbell's condensed and ready-to-enjoy soups; Swanson brand broths and stocks; Pacific Foods' line of broths, soups, and non-dairy beverages; Prego pasta sauces; Pace brand Mexican sauces; Campbell's gravies, pasta dishes, beans, and dinner sauces; Swanson canned poultry; Plum organic baby food and snacks; V8 juices and drinks; and Campbell's tomato juice. The Snacks division primarily targets the retail sector, with a significant presence in Latin America. This segment offers a diverse array of treats, such as Pepperidge Farm's selection of cookies, crackers, fresh bakery items, and frozen goods, including Milano cookies and Goldfish crackers. Other notable brands within this category are Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, Snack Factory Pretzel Crisps, Pop Secret popcorn, Emerald nuts, and numerous other snacking options. Campbell Soup Company employs a comprehensive distribution strategy, selling its merchandise across an extensive network that encompasses major retail food chains, mass discounters and merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, drug stores, and dollar stores. Additionally, products are available via e-commerce platforms, various other retail, commercial, and non-commercial establishments, and a system of independent contractor distributors. Established in 1869, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Camden, New Jersey.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- CEO
- Mick J. Beekhuizen