TGM's two-stage DCF values Campbell Soup Company (CPB) between $13.78 and $43.71 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $23.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$21.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $13.78 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $23.91 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $43.71 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $45.28 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$21.25
Market-Implied Growth
+0.6%/yr
vs -2.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.78 – $43.71
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $691.5M · 0.30B shares · net debt $6.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$23.91
+12.5% vs $21.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $21.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $37.55 | $44.97 | $54.84 | $68.66 | $89.36 |
| 6.5% | $25.50 | $29.95 | $35.51 | $42.65 | $52.16 |
| 7.5% | $17.46 | $20.39 | $23.91 | $28.20 | $33.56 |
| 8.5% | $11.72 | $13.78 | $16.17 | $19.00 | $22.39 |
| 9.5% | $7.41 | $8.92 | $10.65 | $12.63 | $14.95 |
