TGM's two-stage DCF values Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) between $497.10 and $917.10 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $665.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$390.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.4%/yr | 9.5% | $497.10 |
| Base case | 15.4%/yr | 8.5% | $665.15 |
| Optimistic | 18.4%/yr | 7.5% | $917.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $606.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$390.41
Market-Implied Growth
+2.8%/yr
vs +15.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$497.10 – $917.10
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.07B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$665.15
+70.4% vs $390.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $390.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $840 | $924 | $1028 | $1163 | $1341 |
| 7.5% | $689 | $744 | $810 | $891 | $991 |
| 8.5% | $582 | $620 | $665 | $718 | $781 |
| 9.5% | $502 | $530 | $562 | $599 | $642 |
| 10.5% | $439 | $461 | $485 | $512 | $543 |
