TGM's two-stage DCF values Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) between $493.03 and $909.61 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $659.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$397.76 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.2%/yr | 9.5% | $493.03 |
| Base case | 15.2%/yr | 8.5% | $659.71 |
| Optimistic | 18.2%/yr | 7.5% | $909.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $566.45 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$397.76
Market-Implied Growth
+3.3%/yr
vs +15.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$493.03 – $909.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.07B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$659.71
+65.9% vs $397.76
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $397.76; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $833 | $916 | $1020 | $1153 | $1330 |
| 7.5% | $684 | $738 | $804 | $883 | $983 |
| 8.5% | $577 | $615 | $660 | $712 | $775 |
| 9.5% | $498 | $525 | $557 | $594 | $637 |
| 10.5% | $436 | $457 | $481 | $508 | $538 |
