Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) between $497.31 and $917.48 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $665.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$345.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.4%/yr | 9.5% | $497.31 |
| Base case | 15.4%/yr | 8.5% | $665.42 |
| Optimistic | 18.4%/yr | 7.5% | $917.48 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $650.79 | |
Current Price
$345.28
Market-Implied Growth
+0.1%/yr
vs +4.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$497.31 – $917.48
model output — not a price target
CPAY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CPAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.07B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$1060.25
+207.1% vs $345.28
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $345.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $1420 | $1544 | $1699 | $1898 | $2163 |
| 7.5% | $1144 | $1221 | $1314 | $1428 | $1570 |
| 8.5% | $948 | $1000 | $1060 | $1132 | $1217 |
| 9.5% | $803 | $839 | $881 | $928 | $984 |
| 10.5% | $692 | $718 | $748 | $781 | $819 |
About Corpay, Inc.
Corpay, Inc. operates as a global financial technology firm, delivering payment solutions that assist both businesses and individual consumers in efficiently managing a diverse range of expenditures. Its expertise primarily covers vehicle-related costs, corporate financial transactions, and lodging expenses, with operations spanning the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and numerous other international markets. Among its specialized services are comprehensive vehicle payment offerings, which include provisions for fuel, road tolls, parking fees, fleet maintenance, and long-distance transportation. The company also supplies prepaid vouchers and cards for food and transit requirements. For its corporate clientele, Corpay furnishes sophisticated payment instruments such as automated accounts payable systems, virtual payment cards, solutions for international transactions, and dedicated purchasing alongside travel and entertainment card products. Its lodging payment services cater to a broad spectrum of needs, supporting employees on overnight business trips, airline and cruise personnel or stranded passengers, and insurance policyholders displaced from their residences due due to damage or catastrophe. Furthermore, Corpay issues gift cards and payroll cards. Its diverse customer base extends to businesses, merchants, individual consumers, and payment network partners. Established in 1986 and based in Atlanta, Georgia, the company was previously known as FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc., before officially adopting the name Corpay, Inc. in March 2024.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- CEO
- Ronald F. Clarke