Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CP
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($28.52) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$88.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 11.2% | $9.44 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 10.2% | $17.39 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 9.2% | $28.52 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $19.59 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$88.28
Market-Implied Growth
+41.3%/yr
vs +12.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$17.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.88B shares · net debt $16.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$17.39
-80.3% vs $88.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $88.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $24.61 | $27.54 | $30.97 | $35.07 | $40.03 |
| 9.2% | $18.61 | $20.73 | $23.16 | $25.98 | $29.29 |
| 10.2% | $14.00 | $15.59 | $17.39 | $19.43 | $21.77 |
| 11.2% | $10.35 | $11.59 | $12.95 | $14.49 | $16.22 |
| 12.2% | $7.40 | $8.37 | $9.45 | $10.63 | $11.96 |
