Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CP
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($39.10) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$91.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.1% | $16.90 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.1% | $27.09 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.1% | $39.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $22.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$91.62
Market-Implied Growth
+41.7%/yr
vs +12.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$27.09
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.88B shares · net debt $16.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$27.09
-70.4% vs $91.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $91.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $36.63 | $40.53 | $45.11 | $50.60 | $57.26 |
| 9.1% | $28.69 | $31.50 | $34.72 | $38.47 | $42.89 |
| 10.1% | $22.62 | $24.72 | $27.09 | $29.80 | $32.90 |
| 11.1% | $17.84 | $19.46 | $21.26 | $23.28 | $25.57 |
| 12.1% | $13.98 | $15.26 | $16.67 | $18.23 | $19.96 |
