TGM's two-stage DCF values Coty Inc. (COTY) between $2.02 and $6.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $3.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$2.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.6%/yr | 9.9% | $2.02 |
| Base case | 4.6%/yr | 8.9% | $3.70 |
| Optimistic | 7.6%/yr | 7.9% | $6.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $12.67 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$2.81
Market-Implied Growth
+1.4%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2.02 – $6.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COTY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $358.8M · 0.88B shares · net debt $3.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$3.70
+31.7% vs $2.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $5.33 | $6.07 | $6.98 | $8.12 | $9.60 |
| 7.9% | $3.94 | $4.44 | $5.04 | $5.75 | $6.63 |
| 8.9% | $2.93 | $3.29 | $3.70 | $4.19 | $4.76 |
| 9.9% | $2.16 | $2.42 | $2.73 | $3.07 | $3.47 |
| 10.9% | $1.55 | $1.76 | $1.98 | $2.24 | $2.54 |
