Cencora, Inc. (COR) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Cencora, Inc. (COR) between $269.76 and $550.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $377.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$281.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.4%/yr | 8.5% | $269.76 |
| Base case | 7.4%/yr | 7.5% | $377.74 |
| Optimistic | 10.4%/yr | 6.5% | $550.36 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $703.78 | |
Current Price
$281.67
Market-Implied Growth
+1.1%/yr
vs +4.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$269.76 – $550.36
model output — not a price target
COR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1B · 0.19B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$457.12
+62.3% vs $281.67
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $281.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $634 | $706 | $802 | $936 | $1137 |
| 6.5% | $494 | $535 | $586 | $652 | $740 |
| 7.5% | $401 | $426 | $457 | $495 | $542 |
| 8.5% | $334 | $351 | $371 | $395 | $424 |
| 9.5% | $285 | $297 | $311 | $326 | $345 |
About Cencora, Inc.
Cencora, Inc. functions as a global leader in the sourcing and distribution of pharmaceutical products, with operations spanning both the United States and international markets. Within its U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment, the company supplies a broad spectrum of pharmaceutical items, including generic and injectable medications, over-the-counter health products, and home healthcare equipment. Its extensive client network includes acute care hospitals, health systems, a variety of retail and mail-order pharmacies (independent, chain, long-term care), medical clinics, and other healthcare providers. This division also manages the distribution of crucial specialized pharmaceutical products like plasma, blood derivatives, and vaccines. Beyond product supply, Cencora offers comprehensive support services, such as pharmacy management, staffing solutions, and strategic consulting. It develops and implements supply management software, provides packaging services for both institutional and retail healthcare settings, and assists with clinical trial support, post-market approval processes, and commercialization strategies. For biotechnology and pharmaceutical manufacturers, the company delivers data analytics, outcomes research, and other specialized services. Furthermore, Cencora serves the animal health market, providing pharmaceuticals, vaccines, parasiticides, diagnostics, and micro feed ingredients for both companion and production animals. It also offers sales force support to manufacturers and specialized services to medical professionals, particularly oncologists, as well as to hospitals and dialysis clinics. The International Healthcare Solutions division concentrates on global pharmaceutical wholesale activities, associated services, and worldwide commercialization support. It ensures the efficient distribution of medicines, various healthcare goods, and related services to an international customer base comprising pharmacies, doctors, health centers, and hospitals. This segment also delivers specialized transportation and logistics solutions specifically designed for the biopharmaceutical sector. Founded in 1871, the company was formerly known as AmerisourceBergen Corporation before adopting the name Cencora, Inc. in August 2023. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Distribution
- CEO
- Robert Mauch