TGM's two-stage DCF values Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) between $91.92 and $156.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $117.94. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$57.29 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -14.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.9%/yr | 9.8% | $91.92 |
| Base case | 3.9%/yr | 8.8% | $117.94 |
| Optimistic | 6.9%/yr | 7.8% | $156.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $90.60 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$57.29
Market-Implied Growth
-14.8%/yr
vs -4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$91.92 – $156.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COLM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $324.0M · 0.05B shares · net cash $442.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$117.94
+105.8% vs $57.29
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $57.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $143 | $155 | $169 | $187 | $211 |
| 7.8% | $122 | $129 | $139 | $150 | $164 |
| 8.8% | $106 | $111 | $118 | $125 | $134 |
| 9.8% | $94.00 | $98.14 | $103 | $108 | $114 |
| 10.8% | $84.67 | $87.85 | $91.40 | $95.40 | $99.94 |
