Why we don't show a single “fair value” for COHU
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($12.98) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$73.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +53.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $8.20 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $9.92 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $12.98 |
Current Price
$73.48
Market-Implied Growth
+53.7%/yr
vs -9.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$9.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COHU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $48.1M · 0.05B shares · net debt $69.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.92
-86.5% vs $73.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $73.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $11.73 | $12.40 | $13.15 | $14.03 | $15.04 |
| 10.5% | $10.26 | $10.77 | $11.33 | $11.97 | $12.70 |
| 11.5% | $9.08 | $9.48 | $9.92 | $10.40 | $10.95 |
| 12.5% | $8.12 | $8.44 | $8.78 | $9.16 | $9.58 |
| 13.5% | $7.32 | $7.58 | $7.85 | $8.16 | $8.49 |
