TGM's two-stage DCF values Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) between $29.89 and $65.65 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $42.43. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$126.15 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.0% | $29.89 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.0% | $42.43 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.0% | $65.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $61.36 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$126.15
Market-Implied Growth
+22.0%/yr
vs -1.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.89 – $65.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.60B shares · net debt $15.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$42.43
-66.4% vs $126.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $126.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $57.43 | $64.22 | $72.51 | $82.85 | $96.14 |
| 8.0% | $44.65 | $49.27 | $54.73 | $61.28 | $69.27 |
| 9.0% | $35.27 | $38.60 | $42.43 | $46.89 | $52.16 |
| 10.0% | $28.11 | $30.59 | $33.41 | $36.61 | $40.31 |
| 11.0% | $22.45 | $24.37 | $26.50 | $28.90 | $31.62 |
