TGM's two-stage DCF values Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) between $30.63 and $67.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $43.49. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$120.93 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.9% | $30.63 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.9% | $43.49 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.9% | $67.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $57.72 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$120.93
Market-Implied Growth
+20.6%/yr
vs -1.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.63 – $67.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.60B shares · net debt $15.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$43.49
-64.0% vs $120.93
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $120.93; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $58.97 | $66.05 | $74.73 | $85.62 | $99.70 |
| 7.9% | $45.75 | $50.54 | $56.22 | $63.04 | $71.41 |
| 8.9% | $36.10 | $39.53 | $43.49 | $48.11 | $53.59 |
| 9.9% | $28.75 | $31.30 | $34.20 | $37.51 | $41.33 |
| 10.9% | $22.96 | $24.93 | $27.12 | $29.59 | $32.38 |
