Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CLS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($54.41) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $34.77 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $44.04 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $54.41 |
Current Price
$373.69
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$44.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CLS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $252.1M · 0.11B shares · net debt $163.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$44.04
-88.2% vs $373.69
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $373.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $52.08 | $55.02 | $58.39 | $62.27 | $66.79 |
| 10.5% | $45.56 | $47.79 | $50.30 | $53.14 | $56.39 |
| 11.5% | $40.37 | $42.11 | $44.04 | $46.19 | $48.61 |
| 12.5% | $36.15 | $37.53 | $39.05 | $40.73 | $42.59 |
| 13.5% | $32.65 | $33.77 | $34.99 | $36.32 | $37.79 |
