Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CLFD
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($15.97) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$33.16 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.2%/yr | 12.5% | $10.63 |
| Base case | 5.2%/yr | 11.5% | $12.90 |
| Optimistic | 8.2%/yr | 10.5% | $15.97 |
Current Price
$33.16
Market-Implied Growth
+32.5%/yr
vs +9.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$12.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CLFD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $12.1M · 0.01B shares · net cash $21.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$12.90
-61.1% vs $33.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $33.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $14.75 | $15.43 | $16.20 | $17.09 | $18.13 |
| 10.5% | $13.25 | $13.77 | $14.34 | $15.00 | $15.74 |
| 11.5% | $12.06 | $12.46 | $12.90 | $13.40 | $13.95 |
| 12.5% | $11.08 | $11.40 | $11.75 | $12.13 | $12.56 |
| 13.5% | $10.26 | $10.52 | $10.80 | $11.11 | $11.45 |
