TGM's two-stage DCF values Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) between $9.23 and $14.80 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $11.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$11.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.8% | $9.23 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.8% | $11.77 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.8% | $14.80 |
Current Price
$11.37
Market-Implied Growth
+17.1%/yr
vs +19.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$9.23 – $14.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CLBT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $107.9M · 0.25B shares · net cash $124.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$11.77
+3.6% vs $11.37
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $11.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $14.19 | $15.21 | $16.41 | $17.87 | $19.66 |
| 8.8% | $12.16 | $12.89 | $13.72 | $14.70 | $15.86 |
| 9.8% | $10.63 | $11.17 | $11.77 | $12.47 | $13.27 |
| 10.8% | $9.44 | $9.84 | $10.30 | $10.81 | $11.40 |
| 11.8% | $8.48 | $8.80 | $9.15 | $9.54 | $9.98 |
