Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CISS
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor C3is Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.4% | $179.07 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.4% | $228.01 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.4% | $284.95 |
Current Price
$0.86
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$228.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CISS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6M · 0.00B shares · net cash $616640
Estimated Fair Value
$228.01
+26321.0% vs $0.86
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $0.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $273 | $291 | $312 | $337 | $367 |
| 9.4% | $236 | $249 | $264 | $281 | $301 |
| 10.4% | $207 | $217 | $228 | $241 | $255 |
| 11.4% | $184 | $192 | $200 | $210 | $221 |
| 12.4% | $166 | $172 | $178 | $186 | $194 |
