Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CIGI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($40.00) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$89.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.6%/yr | 11.3% | $7.82 |
| Base case | 12.6%/yr | 10.3% | $21.25 |
| Optimistic | 15.6%/yr | 9.3% | $40.00 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $124.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$89.04
Market-Implied Growth
+32.1%/yr
vs +1.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$21.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CIGI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $156.7M · 0.05B shares · net debt $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$21.25
-76.1% vs $89.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $89.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $33.40 | $38.28 | $43.99 | $50.78 | $58.97 |
| 9.3% | $23.32 | $26.87 | $30.93 | $35.63 | $41.14 |
| 10.3% | $15.57 | $18.24 | $21.25 | $24.67 | $28.58 |
| 11.3% | $9.41 | $11.48 | $13.79 | $16.37 | $19.27 |
| 12.3% | $4.42 | $6.06 | $7.87 | $9.87 | $12.09 |
