Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CIEN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($35.04) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.7%/yr | 11.6% | $20.07 |
| Base case | 12.7%/yr | 10.6% | $26.35 |
| Optimistic | 15.7%/yr | 9.6% | $35.04 |
Current Price
$355.91
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$26.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CIEN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $220.0M · 0.14B shares · net debt $443.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$26.35
-92.6% vs $355.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $355.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $31.93 | $34.12 | $36.66 | $39.66 | $43.24 |
| 9.6% | $27.33 | $28.94 | $30.77 | $32.88 | $35.33 |
| 10.6% | $23.75 | $24.98 | $26.35 | $27.90 | $29.67 |
| 11.6% | $20.89 | $21.85 | $22.91 | $24.09 | $25.41 |
| 12.6% | $18.55 | $19.32 | $20.15 | $21.08 | $22.10 |
