Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CIEN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($33.38) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.8%/yr | 11.4% | $18.92 |
| Base case | 10.8%/yr | 10.4% | $24.97 |
| Optimistic | 13.8%/yr | 9.4% | $33.38 |
Current Price
$412.39
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$24.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CIEN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $220.0M · 0.14B shares · net debt $443.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$24.97
-93.9% vs $412.39
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $412.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $30.36 | $32.50 | $35.01 | $37.98 | $41.55 |
| 9.4% | $25.90 | $27.46 | $29.26 | $31.33 | $33.74 |
| 10.4% | $22.45 | $23.63 | $24.97 | $26.48 | $28.21 |
| 11.4% | $19.70 | $20.62 | $21.65 | $22.79 | $24.08 |
| 12.4% | $17.47 | $18.20 | $19.01 | $19.90 | $20.88 |
