Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHSN
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Chanson International Holding right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.1%/yr | 8.5% | $8.40 |
| Base case | 16.1%/yr | 7.5% | $11.27 |
| Optimistic | 19.1%/yr | 6.5% | $15.87 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $163.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.04
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$11.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHSN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $681857 · 0.00B shares · net cash $1.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$11.27
+984.0% vs $1.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $14.60 | $16.41 | $18.81 | $22.18 | $27.22 |
| 6.5% | $11.66 | $12.75 | $14.10 | $15.83 | $18.15 |
| 7.5% | $9.71 | $10.42 | $11.27 | $12.31 | $13.61 |
| 8.5% | $8.32 | $8.82 | $9.40 | $10.08 | $10.90 |
| 9.5% | $7.28 | $7.64 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.10 |
