Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHSCP
Even the conservative scenario ($1,126.61) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $1,126.61 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $1,502.48 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $2,237.37 |
Current Price
$26.09
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1,502.48
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHSCP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.01B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$1502.48
+5658.8% vs $26.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $2009 | $2284 | $2651 | $3163 | $3932 |
| 6.5% | $1561 | $1727 | $1933 | $2198 | $2551 |
| 7.5% | $1263 | $1372 | $1502 | $1662 | $1861 |
| 8.5% | $1050 | $1126 | $1215 | $1320 | $1446 |
| 9.5% | $890 | $946 | $1010 | $1084 | $1170 |
