Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHSCO
Even the conservative scenario ($1,090.73) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $1,090.73 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $1,454.63 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $2,166.11 |
Current Price
$25.66
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1,454.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHSCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.01B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$1454.63
+5568.9% vs $25.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1945 | $2211 | $2566 | $3063 | $3807 |
| 6.5% | $1512 | $1672 | $1871 | $2128 | $2470 |
| 7.5% | $1223 | $1328 | $1455 | $1609 | $1801 |
| 8.5% | $1017 | $1091 | $1177 | $1278 | $1400 |
| 9.5% | $862 | $916 | $978 | $1049 | $1133 |
