Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHSCM
Even the conservative scenario ($1,043.07) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $1,043.07 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $1,391.06 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $2,071.45 |
Current Price
$23.75
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1,391.06
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHSCM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.01B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$1391.06
+5757.1% vs $23.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $23.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1860 | $2115 | $2454 | $2929 | $3640 |
| 6.5% | $1446 | $1599 | $1790 | $2035 | $2362 |
| 7.5% | $1169 | $1270 | $1391 | $1539 | $1723 |
| 8.5% | $972 | $1043 | $1125 | $1222 | $1339 |
| 9.5% | $824 | $876 | $935 | $1004 | $1083 |
