Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CHSCL
Even the conservative scenario ($1,071.32) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $1,071.32 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $1,428.74 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $2,127.55 |
Current Price
$25.14
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1,428.74
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHSCL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.01B shares · net debt $2.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$1428.74
+5584.0% vs $25.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1910 | $2172 | $2520 | $3008 | $3739 |
| 6.5% | $1485 | $1642 | $1838 | $2090 | $2426 |
| 7.5% | $1201 | $1305 | $1429 | $1580 | $1769 |
| 8.5% | $999 | $1071 | $1156 | $1256 | $1375 |
| 9.5% | $847 | $900 | $961 | $1031 | $1112 |
