A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$77.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $16.30 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $48.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $154.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$77.57
Market-Implied Growth
+31.8%/yr
vs +21.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CHDN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $152.8M · 0.07B shares · net debt $4.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$16.30
-79.0% vs $77.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $77.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $43.32 | $57.95 | $77.45 | $105 | $146 |
| 6.5% | $19.47 | $28.24 | $39.19 | $53.26 | $72.01 |
| 7.5% | $3.63 | $9.39 | $16.30 | $24.73 | $35.27 |
| 8.5% | N/A | N/A | $1.08 | $6.63 | $13.27 |
| 9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
