Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CGTL
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Creative Global Technology Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $0.11 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $0.14 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $0.20 |
Current Price
$3.75
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$0.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CGTL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10082 · 0.00B shares · net cash $21410
Estimated Fair Value
$0.14
-96.2% vs $3.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $0.18 | $0.20 | $0.23 | $0.27 | $0.32 |
| 6.5% | $0.15 | $0.16 | $0.17 | $0.19 | $0.22 |
| 7.5% | $0.12 | $0.13 | $0.14 | $0.15 | $0.17 |
| 8.5% | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.13 | $0.14 |
| 9.5% | $0.10 | $0.10 | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.12 |
