Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CF
Even the conservative scenario ($314.32) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$114.35 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -14.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.3%/yr | 8.5% | $314.32 |
| Base case | 14.3%/yr | 7.5% | $434.18 |
| Optimistic | 17.3%/yr | 6.5% | $625.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $327.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$114.35
Market-Implied Growth
-14.7%/yr
vs +17.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$434.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.15B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$434.18
+279.7% vs $114.35
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $114.35; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $572 | $647 | $747 | $886 | $1095 |
| 6.5% | $450 | $495 | $551 | $623 | $719 |
| 7.5% | $369 | $399 | $434 | $477 | $531 |
| 8.5% | $312 | $332 | $356 | $385 | $419 |
| 9.5% | $269 | $284 | $301 | $321 | $344 |
