CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CF
Even the conservative scenario ($251.20) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$102.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -16.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.1%/yr | 8.5% | $251.20 |
| Base case | 9.1%/yr | 7.5% | $347.25 |
| Optimistic | 12.1%/yr | 6.5% | $500.79 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $338.65 | |
Current Price
$102.17
Market-Implied Growth
-16.9%/yr
vs +6.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$347.25
model output — not a price target
CF DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.15B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$446.29
+336.8% vs $102.17
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $102.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $617 | $687 | $780 | $910 | $1104 |
| 6.5% | $481 | $521 | $571 | $635 | $720 |
| 7.5% | $391 | $416 | $446 | $483 | $529 |
| 8.5% | $328 | $344 | $364 | $387 | $414 |
| 9.5% | $280 | $292 | $305 | $320 | $338 |
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users. Founded in 1946, the firm is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- CEO
- Christopher D. Bohn