TGM's two-stage DCF values Certara, Inc. (CERT) between $6.54 and $9.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $7.94. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$10.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.0%/yr | 12.1% | $6.54 |
| Base case | 9.0%/yr | 11.1% | $7.94 |
| Optimistic | 12.0%/yr | 10.1% | $9.85 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $5.03 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$10.07
Market-Implied Growth
+16.0%/yr
vs +8.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$6.54 – $9.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CERT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $68.6M · 0.16B shares · net cash $178.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$7.94
-21.1% vs $10.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $9.13 | $9.58 | $10.09 | $10.69 | $11.40 |
| 10.1% | $8.16 | $8.50 | $8.87 | $9.31 | $9.80 |
| 11.1% | $7.39 | $7.65 | $7.94 | $8.26 | $8.63 |
| 12.1% | $6.77 | $6.98 | $7.20 | $7.45 | $7.73 |
| 13.1% | $6.26 | $6.42 | $6.60 | $6.80 | $7.02 |
