TGM's two-stage DCF values Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA) between $63.38 and $119.05 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $82.22. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$34.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -16.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $63.38 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $82.22 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $119.05 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $61.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$34.22
Market-Implied Growth
-16.0%/yr
vs +4.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$63.38 – $119.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CENTA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $309.4M · 0.07B shares · net debt $309.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$82.22
+140.3% vs $34.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $34.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $108 | $121 | $140 | $165 | $204 |
| 6.5% | $85.18 | $93.46 | $104 | $117 | $135 |
| 7.5% | $70.23 | $75.68 | $82.22 | $90.21 | $100 |
| 8.5% | $59.55 | $63.38 | $67.83 | $73.10 | $79.40 |
| 9.5% | $51.54 | $54.35 | $57.56 | $61.25 | $65.55 |