TGM's two-stage DCF values Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) between $72.66 and $136.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $94.25. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$39.78 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -15.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $72.66 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $94.25 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $136.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $61.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$39.78
Market-Implied Growth
-15.7%/yr
vs +4.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$72.66 – $136.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CENT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $309.4M · 0.06B shares · net debt $309.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$94.25
+136.9% vs $39.78
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $39.78; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $123 | $139 | $160 | $190 | $234 |
| 6.5% | $97.64 | $107 | $119 | $134 | $155 |
| 7.5% | $80.50 | $86.76 | $94.25 | $103 | $115 |
| 8.5% | $68.26 | $72.65 | $77.76 | $83.79 | $91.02 |
| 9.5% | $59.08 | $62.30 | $65.98 | $70.21 | $75.14 |
