Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CECO
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor CECO Environmental Corp. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $4.91 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $6.13 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $7.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $47.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$71.20
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$6.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CECO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $16.9M · 0.06B shares · net cash $8.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.13
-91.4% vs $71.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $71.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $7.19 | $7.58 | $8.02 | $8.53 | $9.13 |
| 10.5% | $6.33 | $6.63 | $6.96 | $7.33 | $7.76 |
| 11.5% | $5.65 | $5.88 | $6.13 | $6.42 | $6.73 |
| 12.5% | $5.09 | $5.27 | $5.47 | $5.70 | $5.94 |
| 13.5% | $4.63 | $4.78 | $4.94 | $5.12 | $5.31 |
