Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CDNA
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor CareDx, Inc right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.6%/yr | 12.5% | $1.78 |
| Base case | 12.6%/yr | 11.5% | $1.91 |
| Optimistic | 15.6%/yr | 10.5% | $2.08 |
Current Price
$69.85
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1.91
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CDNA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0M · 0.05B shares · net cash $65.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.91
-97.3% vs $69.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $2.02 | $2.06 | $2.10 | $2.16 | $2.22 |
| 10.5% | $1.93 | $1.96 | $1.99 | $2.03 | $2.08 |
| 11.5% | $1.86 | $1.88 | $1.91 | $1.94 | $1.97 |
| 12.5% | $1.80 | $1.82 | $1.84 | $1.86 | $1.89 |
| 13.5% | $1.75 | $1.77 | $1.78 | $1.80 | $1.82 |
