Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CCJ
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($34.06) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$86.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.0%/yr | 10.1% | $19.46 |
| Base case | 14.0%/yr | 9.1% | $25.40 |
| Optimistic | 17.0%/yr | 8.1% | $34.06 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 31, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $35.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$86.38
Market-Implied Growth
+46.9%/yr
vs +14.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$25.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CCJ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $442.7M · 0.44B shares · net cash $75.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$25.40
-70.6% vs $86.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $86.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $31.27 | $33.89 | $37.08 | $41.05 | $46.12 |
| 8.1% | $26.28 | $28.08 | $30.19 | $32.72 | $35.79 |
| 9.1% | $22.62 | $23.91 | $25.40 | $27.13 | $29.17 |
| 10.1% | $19.82 | $20.79 | $21.88 | $23.13 | $24.56 |
| 11.1% | $17.61 | $18.36 | $19.19 | $20.12 | $21.18 |
