TGM's two-stage DCF values Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) between $24.05 and $48.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $34.13. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$56.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.0% | $24.05 |
| Base case | 3.3%/yr | 10.0% | $34.13 |
| Optimistic | 6.3%/yr | 9.0% | $48.76 |
Current Price
$56.28
Market-Implied Growth
+12.8%/yr
vs +3.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.05 – $48.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CBRL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $75.3M · 0.02B shares · net debt $300.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$34.13
-39.4% vs $56.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $43.30 | $47.07 | $51.53 | $56.86 | $63.38 |
| 9.0% | $35.65 | $38.36 | $41.49 | $45.13 | $49.42 |
| 10.0% | $29.81 | $31.84 | $34.13 | $36.75 | $39.76 |
| 11.0% | $25.20 | $26.76 | $28.50 | $30.46 | $32.67 |
| 12.0% | $21.47 | $22.70 | $24.06 | $25.57 | $27.25 |
