Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)'s fair value in a range of $192.69 – $230.61 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $914.70 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $914.70, the market is pricing in roughly +21.1%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +17.8%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$914.70
Fair-Value Range
$192.69 – $230.61
Market-Implied Growth
+21.1%/yr
vs +17.8% 5Y actual
CAT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $8.5B · 0.46B shares · net debt $33.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$230.61
-74.8% vs $914.70
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $914.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $304 | $323 | $346 | $374 | $407 |
| 9.0% | $251 | $264 | $279 | $297 | $318 |
| 10.0% | $211 | $220 | $231 | $243 | $257 |
| 11.0% | $179 | $186 | $193 | $202 | $212 |
| 12.0% | $153 | $158 | $164 | $170 | $177 |